My Prediction for the 2016 Presidential Race

My prediction for the 2016 presidential race (so if it comes true, you can see that I said it back before it was cool!):

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida will be elected president by a fairly small (but not razor-thin) margin.

He will be elected because he has much of what had Barack Obama going for him. He is young, good looking, and articulate. Like Barack Obama, his beliefs and voting record will be far to one side of the political spectrum, but both engender an image of being moderate and prepared to compromise. Also, he’s a member of an ethnic minority, a member of whom has never been president before.

– Like Barack Obama in 2008, Rubio will come in at a time of great dissatisfaction. People will see that the economy and job situation, best case scenario, has remained stagnant, all the while our national debt will have doubled in 8 years. Unlike with George W. Bush (who is still at fault for anything bad that has ever happened in the world since around October 6th, 1945, when he would have been conceived in his mother’s womb), most on the left and those who tend to vote democrat will not directly blame Barack Obama. Even in light of the recent scandals, there’s a reason those on both sides of the political spectrum refer to him as the “teflon president.” However, people will want “change.”

– On the democratic side, it is unclear who will be their candidate, but it will almost certainly be an older, less charasmatic, less charming candidate than Barack Obama. It will probably be either Joe Biden or some relatively unknown but influential senator (I previously expected Hilary Clinton, but I am rethinking that in light of the whole Benghazi scandal). The candidate will also likely be white. Therefore, the people who are generally apathetic but were drawn to Barack because he was black and such an ideal “candidate” will not be so enamored with the old white guy who will inevitably run against Rubio. It will be more like Barack Obama in 2012; some will vote for the democratic candidate because they are genuinely liberal, and some because they know that a vote for a Republican means that women will be banned from the workplace and rape will be legalized (after all, a congressman in the backwoods of Missouri said something nasty and ignorant about rape once, so that proves it). The passion and draw that Barack Obama had in 2008 will not be there for this 2016 Democrat.

– However, unlike with Mitt Romney, many will be drawn to Rubio for shallow reasons (good looking, articulate). Just as more than a few unabashedly voted for Barack Obama in 2008 because he would be the first black president, the prospect of the first Latino president in America will not be lost on some. Furthermore, the conservative base of the Republican party who decided that they disliked Romney so much that they’d rather not vote and have Obama win will love his conservatism to a much higher degree than moderates will be pushed away by it (I still believe this, though his immigration policy isn’t all that conservative).

As for vice president, well, I have no idea. In line with choices the Republican ticket has made the last few elections, it’ll probably be someone know one will have even heard of lol

(Originally published 06/26/2013: http://3-ringbinder.blogspot.com/2013/06/my-prediction-for-2016-presidential-race.html. Immaterial changes have been made).

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